Despite failures, North Korea could field missile next year: U.S. expert

In spite of the apparent failure of another North Korean missile test at the weekend, the country's aggressive testing schedule could see its Musudan intermediate ballistic missile entering operational service sometime next year - much sooner than expected, a leading U.S. expert said on Monday.

The U.S. military said on Saturday it had detected a failed launch of a Musudan, the latest in a series in violation of United Nations resolutions.

The U.S. Strategic Command said the missile failed in a launch near North Korea's northwestern city of Kusong. South Korea's military said the missile failed immediately after launch, but neither it nor the Pentagon suggested reasons.

The Musudan has range of some 3,000 km (1,860 miles), posing a threat to South Korea and Japan, and possibly the U.S. territory of Guam. Pyongyang claims that it has succeeded in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on a missile, but this have never been independently verified.

John Schilling, an aerospace engineer specializing in rocket propulsion, said it was noteworthy that North Korea had launched the missile from its west coast, rather than from its purpose-built test facility.

"Moving to a roadside near Kusong is like taking the training wheels off the bicycle, seeing if you really have mastered something new," he wrote on the 38 North website that monitors North Korea.

Schilling said the move showed that in spite of only one successful launch to show for seven attempts this year, North Korea was not simply repeating old failures.

"They are continuing with an aggressive test schedule that involves, at least this time, demonstrating new operational capabilities. That increases the probability of individual tests failing, but it means they will learn more with each test," he wrote.

"If they continue at this rate, the Musudan intermediate -range ballistic missile could enter operational service sometime next year - much sooner than had previously been expected," Schilling said

The latest test comes ahead of a meeting on Wednesday in Washington of U.S., Japanese and South Korean defense and foreign ministers expected to focus on North Korea's missile and nuclear programs.The top U.S. diplomat for East Asia said last month Washington would speed up deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system to South Korea given the pace of North Korea's missile tests.

Japanese government sources told Reuters Japan may accelerate around $1 billion of planned spending to upgrade its ballistic missile defenses.

Germany’s fertility rate hits 33-year high due to migrant influx

The EU’s most populous country has reversed demographic trends going back decades, with statistics showing that the rise in fertility is almost exclusively down to immigrant women, while the lifetime birthrates among the German population remain static.

On Monday, the German Federal Statistical Office released its official report, stating that German women currently aged between 15 and 49 have given birth to an average of 1.5 live babies during their lifetimes, up from 1.43 last year.The numbers have been rising since 2012, and the latest lifetime fertility rate is the highest since 1982.

While the fertility rates for German citizens have stayed almost the same as last year – with 1.43 lifetime births versus 1.42, those of foreign citizens who gave birth in Germany climbed, and now differ even more starkly with those of the native population. Foreign women living in Germany gave birth to 1.95 babies, up from 1.86 last year. A replacement lifetime fertility rate, which would allow the population to be kept stable without immigration, is 2.1.

The figures can be largely explained by the spike in immigrant arrivals over the past half-decade.

But the trend is set to grow yet further, as more of the 900,000 people who applied for asylum last year settle, and begin to give birth in Germany. More than two-thirds of those arriving are Muslims, and most come from states with significantly higher fertility rates. The lifetime fertility rate in Syria, the leading origin county, was over three before the war began five years ago, while that of Iraq is over four, and Afghanistan over five.These birthrates are unlikely to be replicated precisely in the new country, and it is also notable that a significant majority of asylum seekers arriving in the country are male, meaning some will have to enter inter-cultural relationships if they are to multiply at all. Nonetheless, as previous statistics show, immigrants, and particularly Muslims, tend to have larger families, even decades after arriving in a European country.In another finding, while the average age of German citizens at time of childbirth has risen – to over 31 – that of immigrant mothers has fallen to about 30.

Before the latest uptick, Germany, with a population that stands at 81 million, had been locked in a long-term demographic crisis.

It was exacerbated by the rapid fall in the number of births in East Germany following reunification, similar to that experienced in other post-Communist states, but even now, Germany lags behind. Its birthrate – the number of children born per 1,000 women each year, not over a lifetime – has fallen to become the lowest in the world. Over the past five years an average of 8.2 babies were born to 1,000 women each year, compared to 8.4 in Japan. This is explained not just by Germans electing to get married later and to have fewer babies, but also an ageing population, combined with a dearth of child-bearing millennials.

While Germany’s leadership is encouraged by the higher fertility rates, which will eventually add more productive workers to the economy, opposition parties, such as the anti-immigrant AfD, which has been gaining momentum, have explicitly warned that the higher Muslim birthrates will eventually transform the demographic make-up of the country irreversibly.

Child sex abuse inquiry: No reduction in scope, says Alexis Jay

The new chairwoman of the child sex abuse inquiry, Professor Alexis Jay, has said she will not seek "any reduction or restriction" in its scope.

The independent inquiry has been beset by controversies, including the resignation of three of its chairwomen.

Prof Jay said that - although some measures would be taken to speed up the inquiry - it was "still very interested in the past".

She said she expects "significant progress" by the end of 2020.

The Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse was set up by then-Home Secretary Theresa May in 2014.

Prof Jay - who led the inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Rotherham in 2014 - was appointed its fourth chairwoman in August.

On her second day, she ordered an internal review into the inquiry. But today she rejected calls to tighten its terms of reference.

"I treat with some scepticism calls for us to forget the past," she said.

"Only by understanding the lessons we can learn from that and the possible failings and cover-ups that might have taken place in certain institutions will we go forward with confidence."

She said the inquiry would not hold public hearings into every institution it was investigating, as it would take too long.

'Different models'

"If we were to pursue the traditional public hearing model - which people associate with inquiries of this kind - to the thousands and thousands of institutions in England and Wales, we would fail," she said.

"There is no possibility we would do that."

Instead, she said the inquiry "intends to use different models and ways of working".Dame Lowell Goddard, the inquiry's third chairwoman, resigned in August.

In her resignation letter, she said the inquiry had a "legacy of failure which has been very hard to shake off".

She has since been accused of using racist language, something she has strongly denied.

Home Secretary Amber Rudd told MPs on Monday that the inquiry's secretary reported concerns to the Home Office about Dame Lowell's "competence and professionalism" on 29 July.

Ms Rudd said "less than a week elapsed" before Dame Lowell resigned.

Shadow home secretary Diane Abbott said "no inquiry in modern times has been mired in such chaos".

"At the very least it suggests a certain incompetence both in setting the terms and selecting the personnel to lead it," she said.

But Ms Rudd said there was "no paralysis" - insisting that the inquiry was working "at full speed".

Earlier this month, the most senior lawyer on the inquiry, Ben Emmerson QC, also stepped down.

In response, a survivors' group said it had concerns about the inquiry's "everlasting remit".

The inquiry is examining how state and non-state institutions in England and Wales protected children from abuse.

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Abuse inquiry: How we got here

7 July 2014 - government announces independent inquiry into the way public bodies investigated and handled child sex abuse claims. Baroness Butler-Sloss chosen as head

9 July - Baroness Butler-Sloss faces calls to quit because her late brother, Sir Michael Havers, was attorney general in the 1980s

14 July - she stands down, saying she is "not the right person" for the job

5 September - Lord Mayor of London Fiona Woolf named the new head of the inquiry

11 October - Mrs Woolf discloses she had five dinners with Lord Brittan from 2008-12

22 October - abuse victim launches legal challenge against Mrs Woolf leading the inquiry, amid growing calls for her resignation

31 October - victims' groups tell government officials they are "unanimous" Mrs Woolf should quit. She steps down later that day

4 February 2015 - Justice Lowell Goddard, a serving judge of the High Court of New Zealand, announced as the new head of the inquiry

13 July - Dame Lowell's pay is revealed as more than £480,000 a year

November - inquiry begins hearing directly from victims and survivors

4 August 2016 - Dame Lowell writes to Home Secretary Amber Rudd to resign from her post

11 August 2016 - Prof Alexis Jay announced as new head of the inquiry

30 September - Ben Emmerson QC, the most senior lawyer working for the inquiry,steps down

India has no moral ground to talk about counter-terrorism, says Sartaj

Adviser to Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz on Sunday said that India had no moral ground to talk about counter-terrorism efforts and pointing fingers at other states as Indian state sponsored terrorism and terror financing on Pakistani soil has been proven irrefutably.

The adviser reacted strongly to Indian Prime Minister Modi's statement that Pakistan is the 'mothership of terrorism' and said that "Modi is misleading his BRICS and BIMSTEC colleagues".

"The Indian leadership is desperately trying to hide its brutalities in the Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir, an internationally recognised dispute on the UN Security Council agenda, where innocent people are being killed and injured by the occupation forces daily with impunity," said Aziz

He said the people of India-held Kashmir (IHK) are being subjected to genocide by India for demanding their fundamental right to self determination, as promised to the Kashmiris in the relevant UNSC resolutions.

"The ongoing Indian atrocities have taken over 150 Kashmiris lives, including children and women, and inflicted injuries on around 15,000 and blinded many hundreds," said the foreign affairs adviser.

He also said that the UN Human Rights High Commissioner in Geneva and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Secretary General, OIC Contact Group on Kashmir and OIC Independent Human Rights Commission have called for sending a fact finding mission to IHK.

"The UN and OIC have rejected Indian attempts to equate Kashmiris' movement for self-determination with terrorism," the adviser remarked, adding that the UN has repeatedly emphasised that people fighting for their self-determination cannot be categorised as terrorists by the occupying state.

The adviser said Pakistan joins all the members of BRICS and BIMSTEC in condemning terrorism and reaffirms its full commitment to fight the menace of terrorism without discrimination, including against Indian state-sponsored terrorism on Pakistani soil.

"Pakistan's sacrifices in the war against terrorism are well acknowledged and repeatedly appreciated by the leadership of most countries in the world."

He added Pakistan is a victim of Indian interference and subversive activities,which are aimed at destabilising Pakistan.

"Unfortunately, in complete disrespect of international law and the UN Charter, the Indian government is pursuing its hegemonic designs," Aziz stated.

The adviser also called upon the international community and especially the BRICS leaders to ask India to stop bloodshed in Kashmir immediately, release Kashmiri leaders and thousands of Kashmiris taken away forcibly and address the humanitarian crisis, caused by India through creation of shortage of basic amenities.

Uri aftermath

The Indian prime minister stepped up a drive to isolate Pakistan diplomatically after the Uri army base attack.

Hours after the attack occurred, Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh termed Pakistan a 'terrorist state'. India also accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack.

The Uri attack occurred days before Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was set to address the United Nations General Assembly regarding Indian human rights violations in held Kashmir.

Following the attack, India claimed to have conducted a cross-border 'surgical strike' against 'launch pads of terror' in Azad Jammu and Kashmir ─ a claim Pakistan has strongly rejected.

Pakistan maintains India is attempting to divert the world's attention away from 'atrocities' committed by government forces in India-held Kashmir.

Pakistan and India have locked horns over the Kashmir issue since Indian forces stepped up a crackdown against protesters after Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani was killed by government forces in July.

An Arms Race with India that Pakistan can't afford

If Pakistan and India had developed the capability of learning from experience they would have abandoned the arms race long ago. Both continue to battle serious social issues that have been deprived of billions of dollars that were diverted to the security matrix instead over decades. 

As a result, seventy years after independence, neither has been able to effectively deal with poverty, slums, employment problems, etc. Both are nuclear powers, though, and give the highest importance to military superiority. And this rivalry, to be ahead of the curve in terms of deterrence at least, assumes an even more dangerous dimension when the political temperature is high.

That is precisely why India’s test firing of its indigenously developed Advanced Air Defence (AAD) supersonic interceptor missile, successful as it was, was still the wrong step at the wrong time. The backdrop is particularly revealing. The dialogue is suspended for the time being. To provoke military escalation now betrays a shrewdly calculated move on the chessboard. 

The Indians have been obsessed with this AAD since ’06 – this was the 12th time that it was test-fired. Again, going by convention, a countermeasure is likely

However, Pakistan must think long and hard about the posture it wants to take – especially since it is realigning long-held policy on a number of existential issues. Pakistan is a country with the worst kind of poverty and deprivation, a largely wasted lower- and middle-income working class, an educational and medical nightmare, and a broken down service delivery system. 

According to news reports it has the highest child mortality rate in the region. And the World Bank says that as many as 60 percent of Pakistani children are now born stunted. 

Now, since the country has achieved effective deterrence, it must no longer play the arms buildup games with India, especially since Delhi spends in excess of $50b on the military –world’s sixth largest military spender in ’15. We must instead, finally, begin diverting money where it is more urgently needed. Further deterrence does not need to be at the cost of basic development.

Take action against 'mothership of terrorism', Modi tells BRICS leaders

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a meeting with fellow BRICS leaders on Sunday in Goa urged them to take a strong united stand against the "mothership of terrorism" in the South Asian region, in a thinly veiled reference to Pakistan.

Modi said a country in India's neighbourhood held links to "terror modules" around the world, which BRICS ─ a bloc consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa ─ should strongly condemn.

"In our region, terrorism poses a grave threat to peace, security and development."

"Tragically the mothership of terrorism is a country in India's neighbourhood," Modi said without naming Pakistan.

"Terror modules around the world are linked to this mothership. This country shelters not just terrorists. It nurtures a mindset. A mindset that loudly proclaims that terrorism is justified for political gains."

"It is a mindset we strongly condemn. And against which we as BRICS need to stand and act together. BRICS must speak in one voice against this threat," he said.

Modi has been using the BRICS summit an an attempt to isolate Pakistan following a surge in tensions between the two countries.

Analysts are sceptical of India's chances of securing a joint BRICS condemnation given China's strong diplomatic support for Pakistan and Russia's efforts to forge closer defence ties with Islamabad.

Modi in his closing remarks at the end of the two-day summit told reporters that BRICS leaders had been unanimous in recognising the threat posed by terrorism to economies globally.

The sponsors of terrorism were "as much a threat to us as the terrorists themselves", Modi said.

In their joint statement later Sunday, the BRICS leaders condemned recent attacks against some of its members "including that in India" but made no mention of Pakistan.

"We strongly condemn terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and stressed that there can be no justification whatsoever for any acts of terrorism, whether based upon ideological, religious, political, racial, ethnic or any other reasons," the statement said.

The Indian prime minister stepped up a drive to isolate Pakistan diplomatically after the Uri army base attack.

Hours after the attack occurred, Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh termed Pakistan a 'terrorist state'. India also accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack.

The Uri attack occurred days before Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was set to address the United Nations General Assembly regarding Indian human rights violations in held Kashmir.

Following the attack, India claimed to have conducted a cross-border 'surgical strike' against 'launch pads of terror' in Azad Jammu and Kashmir ─ a claim Pakistan has strongly rejected.

Pakistan maintains India is attempting to divert the world's attention away from 'atrocities' committed by government forces in India-held Kashmir.

Pakistan and India have locked horns over the Kashmir issue since Indian forces stepped up a crackdown against protesters after Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani was killed by government forces in July.

Over 80 people have been killed and hundreds of protesters injured in clashes with Indian security forces.

Global economy in precarious state, Xi tells BRICS summit

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned that the global economy remained in precarious condition as leaders of the BRICS group of nations tried to find ways to fire up growth in the troubled bloc.

Speaking at a summit in Goa, Xi told his host Modi and other BRICS leaders that the club of emerging powers had been undermined by both domestic and international woes.

But the leader of the world's second largest economy said the long-term forecast for BRICS members was positive as he called for more confidence-building measures.

"The global economy is still going through a treacherous recovery," Xi said in a statement at the summit.

"Because of the impact of both internal and external factors, BRICS countries have somewhat slowed down in economic growth and have faced a number of new challenges in development."

BRICS was formed in 2011 with the aim of using members'growing economic and political influence to challenge Western hegemony.

The nations, with a joint estimated GDP of $16 trillion, set up their own bank in parallel to the Washington-based International Monetary Fund and World Bank and hold summits rivalling the G7 forum.

But the countries, accounting for 53 per cent of world population, have been hit by falling global demand and lower commodity prices, while several have also been mired in corruption scandals.

Russia and Brazil have fallen into recession recently, South Africa only just managed to avoid the same fate last month and China's economy has slowed sharply.

India by contrast is now the world's fastest-growing major economy in an otherwise gloomy environment.

Modi said it was vital that the BRICS nations found ways of increasing their levels of cooperation. He called for the dismantling of trade barriers, promotion of skills and infrastructure development.

"Promoting economic and commercial engagement has been a foundational impulse in creation of BRICS," he said.

Modi, who came to power two years ago, said his government's policy of opening up the Indian economy had achieved results and offered valuable lessons.

"In India, we have undertaken substantial reforms in the last two years to streamline and simplify governance, especially doing business in India," said the Indian prime minister.

"The results are clearly visible. We have moved up in almost all global indices that measure such performances.

"We have transformed India into one of the most open economies in the world today."

Xi said there was no reason why the bloc's members should not flourish as he called on a group made of business leaders from BRICS nations "to take concrete actions to boost confidence".

"The potential and strength of BRICS countries in terms of resources, market and labour forces have remained unchanged," he said.

"The long term... of BRICS development is still positive."